- CHAPTER 6 -
WATER SUPPLIES FOR IRRIGATION
Edition 5, July 2007

A global map showing average precipitation (in mm./ year) is available from Paul Harrison and Fred Pearce, AAAS Atlas of Population and Environment, Victoria Dompka Markham, editor, 215 pages, AAAS and the University of California Press (2001).

The FAO said that two-thirds of the world's population could be threatened by water shortages by 2025. Today 1.2 billion people live in areas with insufficient water and an additional 0.5 billion could soon face shortages. Climate change and pollution are making it difficult for southern countries to provide themselves with food. Africa has 9% of the planet's water resources, but uses only 3.8%. Water resources on the African continent are not well-distributed. Lake Victoria, Africa's largest freshwater reserve, fell two meters below normal in 2005. ("Two-Thirds of World Population Could Face Water Shortage in 2025: FAO," Age, 3/22/07.).

Many rivers in irrigation-dependent regions of the world are already over-appropriated beyond the requirements of the aquatic ecosystems. Our assessment, following the assumptions earlier made by IWMI, suggests that irrigation might not contribute more than 270 km³/ year by 2015 (520 km³/ year by 2030, 725 by 2050). The remaining water requirements will have to be met in other ways (05F1).

See a listing of large databases in Chapter 8 Section (8-E) for sources of tabulations of:
- Irrigated area irrigated with surface water (%), by country
- Irrigated area irrigated with ground water (%), by country
- Irrigated area irrigated with non-conventional sources (%), by country
- Total population, rural population, urban population, by country
- Agricultural water use (km³/ year and %), by country
- Domestic water use (km³/ year and %), by country
- Industrial water use (km³/ year), by country
- Total water use (km³/ year), by country
- Use of improved water sources (% of population) in 2002 (urban and rural) by country
- Annual Renewable water resources (Total in km³) (per-capita in m³/ person) by country
- Annual water withdrawals (Total in km³) (per-capita in m³/ person) by country
- Annual water withdrawals by sector in 2000 (agriculture, industry, domestic) by country
- Water withdrawals (m³/ha) in 2000, by country

Global precipitation rate: 110,000 km³/ year. 2/3 of this is evaporated (transpired) into the atmosphere, leaving 40,000 km³/ year to flow to the sea via rivers, streams and underground aquifers ("groundwater"). 55 rivers in northern North America, Europe and Asia, with a combined flow of 5% of global runoff, are so remote that they have no dams on them. 75% of the global runoff is in the form of floodwater. Large dams, which can hold 14% of the annual runoff, have increased the stable supply of water provided by underground aquifers and year-around river flow by nearly 1/3, bringing the total stable, renewable supply of water to 14,600 km³. Of this total, 12,500 km³ is within reach, geographically and so is accessible for irrigation, industrial and household use (96P3). Comments: Is evaporation from reservoirs being neglected here?

In developing countries, 90-95% of sewage and 70% of industrial wastes are dumped untreated into surface waters where they pollute the usable water supply (Ref. 15 of (02B2)).

In 2001, 2.3 billion people (about 38% of the world population) live in water basins that are at least stressed; 1.7 billion people live in water basins where scarcity conditions prevail. By 2025 these numbers will be 3.5 billion and 2.4 billion respectively (02B2).

In any given year, 54% of the available freshwater is used (01M1). Comment: How much is consumed? Answer is somewhere in this document.

Only 2.5% of all water on Earth is fresh water. Of that, 0.5% is accessible to people through ground water and surface water supplies (01M1).

Water evaporated from the ocean/ sea/ river surfaces takes about 10 days to fall again as rain (01P1) (90B2).

160 km³ of water evaporates each day from the land surfaces of the Earth (58,440 km³ / year) (a 39 cm depth of water from the land if the removal were the same from each unit area of land) (01P1) (90B2).

0.001% of the Earth's total water resides in the atmosphere at any point in time - enough to deposit about 1 inch of rain if it fell uniformly throughout the world (01P1) (90B2).

Every 3100 years a volume of water equivalent to all the oceans passes through the atmosphere (01P1) (90B2).

For the 93 countries, irrigation water withdrawal is expected to grow by 14%, from the current 2128 km³/ year to 2420 km³/ year in 2030 (Table 4.10). This increase is low compared to the 33% increase projected in harvested irrigated area, from 2.57 million km² in 1997/99 to 3.41 million km² in 2030 (Table 4.8) (03B1).
In a survey of irrigation and water resources in the Near East region, it was estimated that the amount of water required to produce the net amount of food imported in the region in 1994 would be comparable to the total annual flow of the Nile River at Aswan (03B1).
The findings of the present study indicate that in developing countries, as in the past but even more so in the future, the mainstay of food production increases will be intensification of agriculture in the form of higher yields, more multiple cropping and reduced fallow periods (03B1).
The overall result for yields of all the crops covered in this study (aggregated with standard price weights) is roughly a halving of the average annual rate of growth over the projection period as compared to the historical period: 1.0%/ year during 1997/99 to 2030 against 2.1%/ year during 1961-99 (03B1).

Table 4.10 - Annual Renewable Water Resources (RWR) and Irrigation Water Requirements (03B1) (Irrigation water withdrawals are in units of km³
Column 1: Sub-Saharan Africa
Col. 2: Latin America/ Caribbean
Col. 3: Near East/ North Africa
Col. 4: South Asia
Col. 5: East Asia
Col. 6: All developing countries
Column - - - - - - - - - - - | ~1 | ~2~ | 3 | 4~ | 5~ | 6 .
Precipitation (mm) ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ | 880| 1534|181|1093|1252| 1043
Internal RWR (km³) ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ |3450|13409|484|1862|8609|28477
Net incoming flows (km³) ~ ~ | ~ 0| ~ ~0| 57| 607| ~ 0| ~ ~0
Total RWR (km³)~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ |3450|13409|541|2469|8609|28477
Irrigation water withdrawal
Irrigation efficiency (1998)%| ~33| ~ 25| 40| ~44| ~33| ~ 38
Irrig. water withdrawal(1998)| ~80| ~182|287| 895| 684| 2128
- - ----as a % of RWR~ ~ ~ ~ | ~ 2| ~ ~1| 53| ~36| ~ 8| ~ ~7
Irrigation efficiency (2030)%| ~37| ~ 25| 53| ~49| ~34| ~ 42
Irrig.w ater withdrawal(2030)| 115| ~241|315|1021| 728| 2420
- - - - as a % of RWR~ ~ ~ ~ | ~ 3| ~ ~2| 58| ~41| ~ 8| ~ ~8
Note: RWR for all developing countries exclude regional net incoming flows to avoid double counting.

China, India, Saudi Arabia, North Africa, and the US over-pump and deplete aquifers at 160 billion cubic meters annually. Since it takes it takes 1,000 tons of water to produce 1 ton of grain, this 160-billion-ton water deficit is equal to 160 million tons of grain, or 50% of the US grain harvest. 480 million of the world's 6 billion people are being fed with grain produced with unsustainable use of water. 70% of the water consumed worldwide is used for irrigation, 20% by industry, and 10% for residential purposes. Migration to cities means that residential use of water triples due to indoor plumbing. If we decided abruptly to stabilize water tables everywhere by simply pumping less water, the world grain harvest would fall by 160 million tons, or 8% (World Watch, 6/21/00). (su5)

Population pressures under 600 persons/ flow-unit (P/FU; 1 FU=1 million cubic meters) are not considered a serious issue, although water quality problems and dry season supply problems may occur. Between 600-1000 P/FU, chances of more recurrent quantitative or/ and qualitative supply problems increase notably: this is called the "water stress" stage. Between 1000-2000 P/FU such problems are common and affect human and economic development; this is the "scarcity" stage. 2000 P/FU is seen as the maximum population pressure that can be handled in the present state of technology and management capabilities; it has been labeled "water barrier". This scale was developed from the observation of areas where both per-capita supplies and resource use problems were well documented (96M2).

Global Water Resource Summary (03W1) (UNESCO; Internationally Shared Aquifer Resources Management)
Oceans ~ ~ ~ ~ | 96.50%
Fresh water~ ~ | ~2.53%
Brackish water | ~0.97%
Total Water~ ~ |100.00%

Global Fresh Water Resource Summary (03W1) (UNESCO: Internationally Shared Aquifer Resources Management)
Glaciers/ permanent snow | 69.600%
Ground water ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ | 30.100%
Lakes, marshes, swamps ~ | ~0.290%
Soil Moisture~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ | ~0.050%
Atmosphere ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ | ~0.040%
Rivers ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ | ~0.006%
Living Organisms ~ ~ ~ ~ | ~0.003%
Total Fresh Water~ ~ ~ ~ |100.089%

Average recycling time for ground water: 1400 years (00S1).

Average recycling time for river water: 20 days (00S1).

97% of the planet's liquid freshwater is in aquifers (00S1). Comments: Does this include glaciers and ice-caps? No, it says "liquid".

Renewable Fresh Water Resources (1998) (in units of 1000 cubic yards/ capita/ year) (Wall Street Journal, 6/3/99) (WRI data) (98B3)
Canada ~ |122.7
Brazil ~ | 40.8
Russia ~ | 37.8
Indonesia| 15.9
US ~ ~ ~ | 11.7
China~ ~ | ~2.9

"Global Water Outlook to 2025: Averting an Impending Crisis" presents three alternative future scenarios for global water supply and demand, and food production and consumption, based on the results of the IMPACT computer model. Only one of the 3 scenarios is given below (02I1).

In the last 50 years, global demand for water has tripled with the rapid worldwide spread of powerful diesel and electrically driven pumps that can pump ground water (02E1).

When the Soviets decided, after a poor harvest in 1972, to import grain rather than tighten their belts, world wheat prices climbed from $1.90/ bushel in 1972 to $4.89 in 1974 (02B1). Comments: The point here is that 1 ton of wheat requires 1000 tons of water and 1 ton of wheat is more transportable than 1000 tons of water. So water shortages translate readily into wheat shortages and the demand elasticity of wheat is very low. (see below)

70% of world water use, including all the water diverted from rivers and pumped from underground (aquifers), is used for irrigation. Thus if the world is facing a water shortage, it is also facing a food shortage. Water deficits, which are already spurring heavy grain imports in numerous smaller countries, may soon do the same in larger countries, such as China or India. Even with over-pumping of its aquifers, China is developing a grain deficit. (Comments: But it is not yet (2002) a net importer.) After rising to an historical peak of 392 million tons in 1998, grain production in China fell below 350 million tons in 2000, 2001, and 2002. The resulting annual deficits of 40 million tons or so have been filled by drawing down China's grain reserves. But if this continues, China will be forced to turn to the world grain market (02B1).

Scores of countries are running up regional water deficits, including nearly all of those in Central Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa, plus India, Pakistan, and the US. Historically, water shortages were local, but shortfalls can cross national boundaries via the international grain trade. Water-scarce countries often satisfy growing needs of cities and industry by diverting water from irrigation and importing grain to offset resulting loss of production. Since a ton of grain equals (requires) 1000 tons of water, importing grain is the most efficient way to import water (02B1).

The assessment in an unclassified CIA report called "Global Trends 2015," makes a number of predictions about the global political landscape. In terms of global resources, the report concludes that by 2015, nearly half of the world's population - more than 3 billion people - will be in countries lacking sufficient water. The 70-page report is one result of an unusual 15-month collaboration between the National Intelligence Council, a sort of analytical think tank of senior intelligence officials that works alongside the CIA, and dozens of outside scientific, diplomatic and corporate experts (00U1) (00C1).

In 2015 nearly 3 billion out of the estimated global population of 7.5 billion people will find it difficult or impossible to find water for food, industry and personal needs. Today's trouble zones are Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, China, Iran, Israel, Jordan, and Syria. According to John Gannon, a former assistant director of the CIA and former chairman of the National Intelligence Council, water scarcity now constitutes "a significant issue in security" as water shortages "encourage refugee movements which, if they spill over into other countries, can engage us." "If people don't have water, they can't live. They are going to move or they are going to die." According to the CIA report "Global Trends 2015" none of the proposed solutions - importing water, water conservation, expanded use of desalinization of seawater, or developing genetically modified crops that use less water or more saline water - will be sufficient to substantially change the outlook for water shortages in 2015 ("Water Shortages Could Be New Cause of Conflicts", Scripps Howard News Service, 12/12/01) (00C1).

Global Runoff and Population, by Continent, 1995 (96P3).
Region- - - - - - -|Runoff~ |Share of| Share of
- - - - - - - - - -|km³/year|Runoff~ |Population
Europe ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ | 3240 ~ | ~8%~ ~ | 13%
Asia ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ |14550 ~ | 36 ~ ~ | 60
Africa ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ | 4320 ~ | 11 ~ ~ | 13
North & C. America | 6200 ~ | 15 ~ ~ | ~8
South America~ ~ ~ |10420 ~ | 26 ~ ~ | ~6
Australia, Oceania | 1970 ~ | ~5 ~ ~ | <1
Totals ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ |40700 ~ |101%~ ~ |100

Rivers that no longer reach the sea for at least parts of the year (99P1)
Yellow ~ ~ | (China - see elsewhere in this review document)
Ganges ~ ~ | (Asian sub-continent)
Indus~ ~ ~ | (Asian sub-continent)
Nile ~ ~ ~ | (Northeast Africa)
Amu Darya~ | (Central Asia)
Syr Darya~ | (Central Asia)
Chao Phraya| (Thailand)
Colorado ~ | (Southwestern North America)
Rio Grande | (Southern US) (From another reference - see elsewhere.)

For 82% of the world' agro-ecosystems, rainfall is the sole source of water for agricultural production ((00W1), p. 66).

Of the 980 large dams in sub-Saharan Africa, 589 are in South Africa, whereas Tanzania only has two large dams ("Water Stress in Sub-Saharan Africa," Council on Foreign Relations, 8/7/06.).

Leading Builders of Big Dams (higher than 10 meters) (95G2)
Column 2 - 1993 Dam starts: Col. 3 - Dams Under Construction
Country|Col.|Col.| Country |Col.|Col.
- - - -| 2~ | 3~ | - - - - | 2~ | 3
China~ | 85 |311 | Italy ~ | 0~ | 37
Turkey | 84 |190 | Tunisia |16~ | 28
Japan~ | 11 |140 | Algeria | 6~ | 27
S.Korea| ~2 |125 | Iran~ ~ | 1~ | 76
India~ | 48 | 76 | Thailand| 7~ | 17
USA~ ~ | 30 | 55 | Greece~ | 3~ | 14
Spain~ | 16 | 53 | France~ | 8~ | 12
Romania| ~0 | 39 | Brazil~ | 4~ | 12
Comments: Total dam starts are about 1% of large-dam inventory.

More than 85% of the large dams now standing have been built during the past 35 years (96P3).

Nearly 1000 large dams were constructed every year from the 1950s through the mid-1970s. The number dropped to about 260 during the early 1990s (96P3).

Australia's Dam Storage Capacity in 1990 (in km³) (01P1):
Australian Capital Territory 0.125 / South Australia 0.267 / Northern Territory 0.275 / Western Australia 7.011 / Queensland 9.459 / Victoria 12.226 / Tasmania 24.167 / New South Wales 25.389 / (Total = 78.919).

Of the world's 45,000 large dams, 22,104 are in China; 6,390 are in the US and just over 4,000 in India. China is planning a series of giant dam cascades across rivers such as the Mekong, the Salween and the Bramaputra that are vital to the prosperity of Southeast Asia. If as a result these rivers end up disappearing like the Yellow, the Huai or the Hai in China, the consequences will be incalculable. ... Hydropower enthusiasts say that if China does not keep building dams at a furious rate, tripling capacity from 60 giga-watts to 171 gigawatts by 2020, it will be forced to burn more coal, with dire consequences for the world's atmosphere." (Continued below)

** "China now ranks second globally to the US in installed electricity capacity (338 giga-watts in 2000) but its use of electricity is just 38% of the world's average. If, by 2050, its population peaks at 1.6 billion and per-capita energy use reaches the world average, it will be adding the generating capacity of Canada every four years. China currently burns more than a billion tonnes of coal a year to produce 75% of its energy. Even the most optimistic assumptions foresee coal consumption growing by about 5%/ year. China has unveiled ambitious plans to cut its reliance on coal to about 55% of its energy needs. By 2030 coal is expected to provide 62%, oil 18%, natural gas 8%, hydropower 9%, and nuclear power 3% of China's energy consumption. By 2050, Chinese planners believe coal consumption should be down to 35% of consumption, with oil and natural gas accounting for 40-50% and primary energy sources such as nuclear, hydro, solar and wind power accounting for 15-20%. ... By 2030 oil is scheduled to supply 18% of China's needs - making it as important a consumer of Middle Eastern oil as Japan or the US." (China: Collision between population and the environment, Asia Times, 8/23/03)

There were 5000 large dams (more than 15 meters high) worldwide in 1950. There are now 45,000 (02U3).

[A5] - Water Supplies - Water Use by Humans - Total -

Globally, more than 1 billion people don't have safe drinking water and 2.6 billion don't have access to sanitation. Between 2 and 5 million people die each year from water-related diseases ("Worldwide-water Scarcity, Contamination a Threat," Standard, 3/22/05.).

77% of China's effluent is untreated, 70% (of Chinese?) have no access to safe drinking water, and 400 of 600 Chinese cities face water shortages. Contamination and lack of capacity are the leading factors for water shortage. China's market for water and wastewater treatment will increase to $22.7 billion in 2005 from $18.7 billion in 2004 and is expected to reach $33.2 billion by 2010 ("Worldwide-water Scarcity, Contamination a Threat," Standard, 3/22/05).

Water is one of the two key raw materials in photosynthesis, the other being carbon dioxide. When leaves open to take in CO₂, huge amounts of water evaporates, in most climates of the order of 1500 m³/ ton biomass produced, but in poverty stricken dry climate countries often twice this amount due to large losses and low water productivity. To produce a balanced diet of 3000 kcal/ person/ day (20% animal protein) involves a consumptive water use of 1300 m³/ person/ day. This water is being picked up by the roots from the so-called green water in the soil consisting of infiltrated rainfall. Water may be added to the soil by irrigation with water withdrawn from the blue water available in rivers and aquifers. This water requirement is 70 times larger than the amount often assumed as the basic need for household supply (50 liters/ person/ day) (05F1).

The Swedish assessment (05F1) suggests that to reach the MDG 2015 Target, an additional consumptive water use of 2200 km³/ year (globally) will be required. This corresponds to a 50% increase from today's global consumptive use of water. If covered by irrigation only, it would involve more than a doubling of all the water withdrawals from rivers and aquifers today, and would be absolutely unacceptable in view of the damage already caused by irrigation in terms of depleted rivers and degraded aquatic ecosystems. Looking beyond 2015 and accepting the FAO-projected average diet in the developing countries for 2030 of 3000 kcal/ person/ day, an additional consumptive water use of 4200 km³/ year would be required by 2030 assuming that hunger be altogether eradicated, increasing to an additional 5200 km³/ year by 2050 in order to feed also the additional population (05F1).

Global freshwater use tripled during the second half of the 20th century as population more than doubled and as technological advances enable farmers and other water users to pump groundwater from greater depths and to harness river water with more and larger dams. As global demand for water soars, pressures on the world's water resources are straining aquatic systems worldwide. Rivers are running dry, lakes are disappearing, and water tables are dropping. Pressure on water resources is particularly acute in arid regions that support agricultural production or large populations-regions where water use is high relative to water availability. The Middle East, Central Asia, North Africa, South Asia, China, Australia, the western US, and Mexico are especially prone to water shortages (06M1).

It is generally believed that per-capita water availability should be 1700 m³ (about 60,000 ft.³) per year. In India, utilizable water is 1000 m³/ year and may slip to 800 m³ by 2050 when India's population is expected to be 1.6 billion (06M2).

Even though more than 2.4 billion people got access to safe drinking water for the first time during the past 20 years, an estimated 1.7 billion people still lack it. Perhaps 2.6 billion people in the world lack basic sanitation. Two million tons of human waste is released into rivers and streams around the world annually. About 1.8 million people, mostly young children, die from diarrhea and related diseases every year. Many of those deaths could be prevented with clean water and sanitation (05W1).

Diets based on meat from grain-fed cattle can deplete as much as 5000 liters per capita per day, while vegetarian diets deplete less than half that much water (00R1).

Rockström et al (1999) (99R2) estimated that the amount of water consumed by agriculture would have to increase from 6100 km³ to 9700 km³, given current trends in population growth, improvements in living standards and water use patterns.

Estimated Global water Demand and Consumption, by Sector, around 1990 (96P3)
Sector- - - - - |Estimated|Share of| Estimated |Share of
- - - - - - - - | Demand~ | Total~ |Consumption| Total
- - - - - - - - |km³/ year| (%)~ ~ |km³/ year~ | (%)
Agriculture ~ ~ | 2880~ ~ | 65 ~ ~ | 1870~ ~ ~ | 82
Industry~ ~ ~ ~ | ~975~ ~ | 22 ~ ~ | ~ 90~ ~ ~ | ~4
Municipalities~ | ~300~ ~ | ~7 ~ ~ | ~ 50~ ~ ~ | ~2
Reservoir losses| ~275~ ~ | ~6 ~ ~ | ~275~ ~ ~ | 12
Totals~ ~ ~ ~ ~ | 4430~ ~ |100 ~ ~ | 2285~ ~ ~ |100
(Evaporation from reservoirs is estimated at 5% of gross reservoir storage capacity.)

The Western US population is 86% urban (01M1).

Water consumption data (01P1) (m³/ person/ year)
U.S.~ ~ ~ |1100
Israel~ ~ | 100
Egypt ~ ~ | 50-60
Jordan~ ~ | 40-60
Syria ~ ~ | 40-60
Lebanon ~ | 40
Gaza strip| 20 (Copied to Muslim World file)

36% of Africa's population lacks safe drinking water and by 2025, one in two Africans will be living with water stress or water scarcity. (Water stress describes a country in which each person has less than 1500 m³/year.) Only 6% of Africa's farmland is irrigated ("Sustainability: Do 'Water Wars' Still Loom in Africa?", InterPress Service, 5/15/04).

The UN said the availability of clean fresh water would be critical for the future because of the escalating population in the world, especially in third world countries. There are up to two billion people without access to safe drinking water and 2.4 billion lack sanitation. More than three million people die every year from unsafe water. Approximately $30 billion/ year is spent on meeting drinking water and sanitation requirements worldwide. An added $14-$30 billion/ year would be needed to meet the targets on water and sanitation ("UN Says World Might Face Immense Water Problem", Business World (Philippines) 10/31/03).

Globally, water use has roughly tripled during 1950-90 and is now 4430 km³ - 35% of the accessible supply. At least an additional 20% is used in-stream to dilute pollution, sustain fisheries and transport goods. So humans actually use more than 50% of the accessible water supply (96P3). Comments: The differentiation between "use" and "consumption" is far from clear in this analysis. When water flows through an urban setting (in via water supply pipes, out via sewer pipes) it picks up salt. Going through two urban settings loads the water with enough salt to start to reduce its value as irrigation value. (See details elsewhere in this review document.) It is not clear whether this fact has been taken into account in the above analysis.

Percent of the world's population with improved water supply rose from 79 to 82% in 2000 (03U1).

67% of the world's population will face water shortages by 2025 ("Running on Empty," a Christian relief and development agency Tearfund, based in the UK) (Environment News Service, 3/22/01).

(Supply/ Demand) Most of the 3 billion people projected to be added worldwide by 2050 will be born in countries already experiencing water shortages (02B1).

Worldwide, 41,000 children/ day die because of unsafe water (03U1).

(Water Quality Constraints) 17% of the world's population has no access to safe drinking water (03U1).

(Water Use Trends) Global water use tripled between 1950 and around 2000 (03U1).

(Water Use Trends) Global water consumption rose six-fold from 1900-95, more than twice the rate of population growth (Environment News Service, 3/22/01).

(Water Use Trends) Water withdrawals from rivers and underground reserves have grown by 2.5-3%/ year since 1940, significantly ahead of global population growth (01U1).

Estimated global water use and consumption (km³/ year) (96P2)
Sector - - - - - - -| Use |Consumption
Agriculture ~ ~ ~ ~ |2880 |1870 (81.8%)
Industry~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ | 975 | ~90 ( 3.9%)
Municipalities~ ~ ~ | 300 | ~50 ( 2.2%)
Reservoir losses~ ~ | 275 | 275 (12.0%)
In-stream flow needs|2350 | ~ 0 ( 0.0%)
Totals~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ |6780 |2285(100.0%) *
* 18% of 12,500 available runoff
Comments: Reservoir evaporation losses should be apportioned among the other water-consumption categories, suggesting that agriculture accounts for about 93% of water consumption by humans.

One billion people lack access to safe water, and 2 billion lack proper sanitation. By 2020, water use by humans is expected to increase by about 40%, and 17% more water than is available now will be needed to grow the necessary food. (Agence France Presse "Major Water Crisis Looms", 3/13/00) (World Commission on Water for the 21st Century data).

By 2050, nearly half of the world will have insufficient water. As much as 42% could be facing either water stress (having less than 1700 m³/ year/ person) or scarcity (less than 1000 m³/ year/ person) (98S1).
Parameter - - - - |1995 | 2050
World population# | 5.7 | 9.4
Water Sufficiency | 92% | 58%
Water Stress~ ~ ~ | 5%~ | 24%
Water Scarcity~ ~ | 3%~ | 18%
# billions

Water Deficits in Key Countries and Regions, Mid-1990s (km³/ year) (99P1)
Region - - -|Deficit
India ~ ~ ~ |104.0
China ~ ~ ~ | 30.0
US~ ~ ~ ~ ~ | 13.6
N. Africa ~ | 10.0
Saudi Arabia| ~6.0
Other ~ ~ ~ |(40 )(?)
Global Total|200.

Number (millions) of People in Countries with less than 1700 m³/ capita/ year runoff (99P1)
Region - - -1995|2025(projection)
Africa ~ ~ |295 | 908
Asia ~ ~ ~ | 86 |1957
Middle East| 86 | 185
Totals ~ ~ |467 |3050

In 2000, 31 countries (combined population: 508 million) were deemed "water-stressed" or "water-scarce" according to "The State of World Population 2001" report (UN Population Fund). Peter Gleick, an expert on global freshwater problems, in an article in the February 2001 edition of Scientific American wrote 'Roughly half the world's population of nearly 6.2 billion "suffers with water services inferior to those available to the ancient Greeks and Romans." Due to the continued increase in population in developing countries the numbers are expected to rise to about 3 billion people living in 41 countries in 2025. About 2.6 billion people in developing countries lack basic sanitation. Almost 1.5 billion do not have access to clean water. These factors together with preventable water-borne diseases kill over 12 million people/ year ("Water, Water (not) Everywhere", Star-Telegram (Fort Worth TX) 11/2/01).

(Supply/ Demand) The International Water Management Institute predicts that, by 2025, one third of the world's population (2.7 billion people) will face permanent and severe water scarcity, particularly in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa (01U1).

Water Availability in 1990 (in m³/ person/ year) (94G1)
Kuwait ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ | 75 | Qatar~ | 1171
Saudi Arabia ~ ~ |306 | Oman ~ | 1266
United Arab Emir.|308 | Lebanon| 1818
Jordan ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ |327 | Iran ~ | 2025
Yemen~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ |445 | Syria~ | 2914
Israel ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ |461 | Iraq ~ | 5531

About 1.1 billion people do not have access to clean water worldwide, and 2.4 billion lack access to sanitation (01M1) Comments: By "sanitation" is probably meant some rudimentary sewage system using underground pipes.

(Power Generation) In industrialized countries, 75% of viable water for electricity generation is used; in Africa 3% is so-used ("World Bank Sees Increased Need to Finance Water Infrastructure", Agence France Presse, 1/30/03).

Groundwater Contribution to Drinking Water use, by Region (00S1)
Region- - - -|Pct.|People Served
- - - - - - -| ~ ~|(millions)
Asia-Pacific | 32 |1000-1200
Europe ~ ~ ~ | 75 | 200- 500
Latin America| 29 | ~ ~ ~150
US ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ | 51 | ~ ~ ~135
Australia~ ~ | 15 | ~ ~ ~ ~3
Africa ~ ~ ~ | ~? | ~ ~ ~ ~?
World~ ~ ~ ~ | ~ ~|1500-2000
Sources: UNEP. OECD, FAO, US EPA, Australia EPA

It takes 2000 liters of water to produce the food we consume each day (presumably a US diet) (05B1). Comments: Is this water use or water consumption?

1000 tons of water can produce 1 ton of wheat worth at most $200 - or it can expand industrial output by $14,000 (05B1).

Much of the global growth in water use over the past half-century is from a vast increase in irrigation, which is used to produce 60% of the world's grain. Globally, irrigated area nearly tripled between 1950 and 2003, growing from 940,000 to 2.77 million km². Irrigated area growth is tapering off as the water needed to expand irrigation becomes increasingly scarce. Forty years ago, irrigated area was expanding at an annual rate of 2.1%, but the last 5 years of data reflect slower growth of 0.4%/ year. Since governments are more likely to report gains from new projects than losses as wells go dry, as rivers dry up, and as irrigation water is diverted to cities, these estimates of irrigated area may be high, and the world's irrigated area may have already peaked. (See Figure <http://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Water/2006_data.htm#fig1> and Table <http://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Water/2006_data.htm#table1>.)

Most people think of improving water productivity in terms of irrigated agriculture, but efforts should not just focus on the 2500 km³ of water diverted annually to irrigation, but must also include the 4500 km³ depleted in rain-fed agriculture. Rain-fed agriculture contributes to about 60% of cereal production on 70% of the global cereal area (04M1).

Researchers from several leading organizations have explored what they consider to be business as usual or base scenarios of future water supply and demand. Looking at the table below you can see that under all four scenarios, irrigation withdrawals increase by 2025 - but with significant differences in by how much (04M1).

Projected Global Increases in Water Withdrawals for Irrigation (in km³).
Source - - -| ~ Total irrigation withdrawals
- - - - - -|1995| 2025|Increase 1995-2025
Shiklomanov|2488| 3097| 24%
IWMI ~ ~ ~ |2469| 2915| 18%
FAO**~ ~ ~ |2128| 2420| 14%
IFPRI~ ~ ~ | ~ .| ~ ~.| *4%
**IFPRI number represents projected increase in irrigation depletion, not in irrigation withdrawals.
**FAO (03F1) uses 2030 instead of 2025 as the projection year.

Shiklomanov's projection (2000) (00S2) considers present trends and extrapolates them into the future. The IWMI base case (00S3) projects increases in efficiency and productivity in irrigation, but is pessimistic about the amount of gains from purely rain-fed agriculture (without any supplemental irrigation). It also assumes that most countries will opt for food self-sufficiency rather than rely on trade.
The FAO scenario (2002) (04M1) is slightly more optimistic about gains in rain-fed areas, and thus predicts less need for irrigation.
The IFPRI scenario (04M1) is very optimistic about gains in rain-fed areas, particularly in developed countries, and assumes that global food trade will form a significant part of the solution.

Facts and figures from UNESCO's World Water Assessment Program. (3/03?)
www.unesco.org/water/wwap/facts_figures/food_Supply.shtml
Most of this information is based on figures provided by the World Health Organization (WHO).
Each day, 25,000 people die of hunger.
Water requirement equivalent of main food products
Product - - - - - - - |Unit |Equiv. Water, m³/ unit
Cattle~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ |head |4000
Sheep/goats ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ |head | 500
Fresh beef~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ | kg. | ~15
Fresh lamb~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ | kg. | ~10
Fresh poultry ~ ~ ~ ~ | kg. | ~ 6
Cereals ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ | kg. | ~ 1.5
Citrus fruit~ ~ ~ ~ ~ | kg. | ~ 1
Palm oil~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ | kg. | ~ 2
Pulses, roots, tubers | kg. | ~ 1
This table gives examples of water required per unit of major food products. Extracted from the Executive Summary of the WWDR. FAO, 1997. Water Resources of the Near East Region: A Review. Rome.

Irrigation accounts for 70% of fresh water withdrawals, and 30-60% is returned for downstream use (Stanley Wood et al, report released by International Food Policy Research Institute, 2/9/01 [satellite data]).

History of Global Irrigation Water Use (km³/ year) (Shiklomanov, 1996) (See plot on p. 166 of (99P1))
Year - - - |1940|1950|1960|1970|1980|1990|1995
Consumption| 900|1150|1500|1800|2200|2350|2500

Water Withdrawals (km³/ year) for Irrigation and River Runoff (90W1)
(Column 4 = Consumption (km³/ year)) (Col. 5 = Recycled (km³/ year)) (Areas in Column 2 are in millions of km².)
Region- - |Area ~| With- Col. Col.|River |Gndwater|Surface
- - - - - |Irrig.|drawal= ~4 ~ ~5 |Runoff|Discharg|Runoff
Europe~ ~ | 0.17 | 110 = ~95 + 15 | 2321 = ~845 + | 1476
Asia~ ~ ~ | 1.40 |1300 = 980 +320 |10485 = 2879 + | 7606
Africa~ ~ | 0.11 | 120 = ~85 + 35 | 3808 = 1464 + | 2720
N. America| 0.29 | 330 = 215 +115 | 6945 = 2222 + | 4723
S. America| 0.085| ~70 = ~55 + 15 |10377 = 3736 + | 6641
Australia*| 0.020| ~16 = ~13 + ~3 | 2011 = ~483 + | 1528
USSR(fmr.)| 0.20 | 260 = 180 + 80 | 4350 = 1020 + | 3330
World Tot.| 2.275|2206 =1623 +583 |40673 =12689 + |27984
* plus Oceania/

Water required for crops in India (cm./ year) (Table 9 and Refs. 54 and 14 of (81G1))
Sugar Cane|140-250| Ground Nuts|60 ~ |Wheat |20-50
Rice~ ~ ~ |120-180| Sorghum~ ~ |50-70|
Corn~ ~ ~ | 50-80 | Cotton ~ ~ |50-70|

Sana'a, Yemen's capital, has doubled its population on average every six years since 1972 and now stands at 900,000 people. The aquifer on which Sana'a, Yemen's capital, depends is falling by six meters a year, and may be exhausted by 2010, according to the World Bank (Stephen Leahy, "Environment: Millions Flee Floods, Desertification", I.P.S., Brooklin, Canada, 10/12/05). (su5)

Water tables are falling in countries that contain more than half of the world's population (06H1).

Aquifers are being over-exploited in major food-producing regions, including (1) North China Plain (a region that yields half of China's wheat and one third of its corn), (2) Punjab, Haryana, and other highly productive agricultural states in northern India; and (3) the southern Great Plains of the US, a major grain-producing region. Together, China, India, and the US produce nearly half the world's grain. These 3 countries, plus Pakistan, collectively account for over 75% of the world's reported groundwater extraction for agricultural purposes. Falling water tables in these 4 countries make world food production less sustainable. (See Table of Underground Water Depletion in Key Countries <http://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Water/2006_data.htm#fig5> .)

Some of the world's largest cities, including Mexico City, Calcutta, and Shanghai, rely heavily on local groundwater. 30% of China's urban water supply is fed from groundwater. Worldwide, roughly 2 billion people - in both rural and urban environments - rely on groundwater for daily water consumption <http://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Water/2006_data.htm>.).

If over-pumping of ground water were to cease, the world's grain harvest would fall by 160 million tons - 8% - unless surface water consumption were increased to compensate (Lester R. Brown, Eco-Economy, W. W. Norton and Co., New York (2001) p. 47). Comments: The usual conversion between water and grain is 1000 tons of water per ton of wheat, so this implies a global groundwater overdraft of 160 billion tons of water per year (about 1.44 km³/ year).

(Ground water Inventory Data) The Guarani aquifer, shared by Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay could provide water at 27 gallons/ day to 5.5 billion people for 200 years (03W1).

Across Africa, Asia, Central- and South America, ground water levels are dropping up to 10 feet a year, due mainly to intensive irrigation. Ground surface levels are sinking in major cities, including Mexico City and Bangkok. Water tables were falling rapidly in South Asia, Mexico and other countries where agriculture relies on irrigation. Two billion people and 40% of agriculture are partly reliant on these hidden stores. Groundwater is rising in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (due to desalination plants) ("UN: World's Water Supplies Under Threat", Associated Press, 6/4/03).

(Groundwater Depletion Data) In substantial areas of China and India, groundwater levels are falling by 1-3 meters/ year (03N1).

(Groundwater Depletion Data) In some areas, particularly in the Near East/ North Africa region, irrigation draws on fossil aquifers that receive little or no recharge at a level that is not sustainable (94G1) (03N1).

The world's water deficit is recent - a product of the tripling of water demand over the last half-century and the rapid worldwide spread of powerful diesel and electrically driven pumps. The drilling of millions of wells has pushed water withdrawals beyond the rate of recharge of many aquifers (02B1).

Globally, desalination produces 4.5 km³ of freshwater per year (date not given). Saudi Arabia's 22 desalination plants produce 1.5 km³ of freshwater per year (01T1).

Desalination Capacity in the Middle East as of 1990 (94G1) (Capacity in m³/ day)
Country - - - -|Capacity~ |Country|Capacity
Saudi Arabia ~ |3,568,868 |Iran ~ |260,609
Kuwait ~ ~ ~ ~ |1,390,238 |Oman ~ |186,741
United Arab Em.|1,332,477 |Israel | 70,062
Libya~ ~ ~ ~ ~ | ~619,354 |Egypt~ | 67,728
Iraq ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ | ~323,925 |Jordan | ~8,445
Qatar~ ~ ~ ~ ~ | ~308,611 |Syria~ | ~5,743
Bahrain~ ~ ~ ~ | ~275,767 |Lebanon| ~4,691

In many river basins of the world, especially those that are already experiencing water stress, there is little or no irrigation water being wasted. This due to the prevalence of water recycling and reuse. Egypt's Nile (98M1), (96K1), the Gediz in Turkey (00G1), the Chao Phraya in Thailand (03M1), Bakhra in India (01M2) and the Imperial Valley in California (95K1), are all documented examples. Thus there is less scope for saving water in irrigation than previously thought.

Research suggests that there are low-cost ways to minimize the risks associated with wastewater irrigation and maximize the benefits to the poor (04S1).

[A9] - Water Supplies - Irrigation Water-Use Efficiency -

Surface water irrigation efficiency ranges between 25 and 40% in India, Mexico, Pakistan and Thailand. It ranges between 40 and 45% in Malaysia, and Morocco. It ranges between 50 and 60% in Israel Japan and Taiwan (05B1).

Traditional furrow irrigation schemes, largely organized by small-scale farmers, cover 80% of irrigated lands in Tanzania's upper Pangani River basin. These methods of irrigation are a major source of conflict because they usually use the water very inefficiently (07M1). (Africa.doc).

As little as 30% of all water diverted into the (irrigation) canals of the Indus River Basin makes it to the root zones of crops.' (D. R. Ward, (2002). Water Wars: Drought, Flood, Folly and the Politics of Thirst. Riverhead Books, New York. p. 118.) (06H2).

In dry areas, deficit irrigation - applying a limited amount of water but at a critical time - can boost productivity of scarce irrigation water by 10 to 20% (03O1).

[A10] - Water Supplies - Surface Water Supplies -

• More than half the world's 500 mightiest rivers have been seriously depleted. Some have been reduced to a trickle in what the UN warned is a "disaster in the making" (06L1). (su5)
• All of the 20 longer rivers of the world are being disrupted by big dams.
• One-fifth of all freshwater fish species in the world either face extinction or are already extinct (06L1).
• The Nile River and Pakistan's Indus River are greatly reduced by the time they reach the sea (06L1).
• The Colorado River and China's Yellow River, now rarely reach the ocean at all (06L1).
• The Jordan and the Rio Grande on the US-Mexico border, are dry for much of their length (06L1).
• 25% of the Britain's 160 chalk rivers and steams - such as the Kennet River in Wiltshire, the Darent River in Kent, and the Wylye River in Wiltshire - are running out of water because too much is being abstracted for homes, industry and agriculture (06L1).
• Some 45,000 big dams now block the world's rivers, trapping 15% of all the water that used to flow from the land to the sea. Reservoirs now cover almost 1% of land surface (06L1). Comments: Is this all land (148 million km²) or only ice-free land (131 million km²)?

Half the world's population depends on rivers starting from mountain glaciers as their freshwater source (06H1).

Himalayan glaciers feed 7 major Asian rivers - the Ganges, Indus, Brahmaputra, Salween, Mekong, Yangtze and Huang He - ensuring a year-round water supply for two billion people. But the Himalayan glaciers are retreating (06H1).

The Chinese Academy of Sciences announced that the Tibetan glaciers are shrinking by 7%/ year. The annual loss of ice is equivalent to the annual flow of China's Yellow River (06H1).

In the Ganges River alone, this loss of glacier melt water could reduce July-September flows by two thirds, causing water shortages for 500 million people and 35% of India's irrigated land (06H1).

In South America, in the dry Andes, glacial melt water contributes more to river flow than rainfall, even during the rainy season (06H1).

The Amu Darya River in Central Asia and the Colorado River in the southwestern US are among the world's rivers that run dry for at least part of the year. Water from the Amu Darya River, once the largest tributary of the Aral Sea, is diverted to irrigate cotton fields of Central Asia. The Colorado's flow is depleted by farmers and cities alike, with over 25% of these withdrawals - 3.8 trillion liters (3.8 km³) - going to California. At times during 18 of the last 26 years of the 20^th century, China's Yellow River failed to make it to the sea. In recent years, however, better management and greater reservoir capacity have facilitated year-round flow. Other rivers, including the Ganges, the Indus, and the Nile, are sometimes little more than a trickle by the time they reach the sea. (See Table of Major Rivers Running Dry <http://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Water/2006_data.htm#fig3>.)

The Dead Sea has dropped by 25 meters (82 feet) in the past 40 years, and Mono Lake in California has fallen by 11 meters since 1941, the year Los Angeles first began to draw water from its tributaries. Lake Chad once spanning 23,000 km² in Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon, and Chad. It now covers 900 km² and exists entirely within Chad's borders, rendering earlier maps obsolete. China's Hebei Province has lost 969 of its 1052 lakes. In Central Asia, historic ports built on the shores of the Aral Sea are now up to 150 kilometers from the water's edge. While the South Aral Sea, intermittently fed by the weakened Amu Darya River, will likely never recover, recent efforts to revitalize the North Aral Sea have raised water level from 30-38 meters, close to the 42-meter level of viability. (See Table of Disappearing Lakes and Shrinking Seas http://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Water/2006_data.htm#fig4) (su5)

Both India and China rely heavily on major river systems that have their sources from the glacial melt of the Himalaya Mountains that are now under threat of global warming. Rapid glacial melt cause short term flooding problems, but more importantly will decrease future water supplies for both nations (06H2). (su5)

53% of the new water entering the Great Lakes is ground water; 24% is surface water; 20% is over-lake precipitation subtracting evaporation losses (02R2).

The Great Lakes cover an area of 94,000 square miles (243,000 km²), and the watershed that drains into them covers 201,000 square miles (521,000 km²). Lake Superior contains 2900 miles³ of water and covers 31,700 miles². Lake Michigan contains 1180 miles³ of water and covers 22,300 miles² and has a drainage basin of 45,600 miles². Lake Erie contains 116 miles³ and covers 9910 miles² and drains 30,000 miles². Lake Ontario contains 393 miles³ of water and covers 7340 miles² and has a drainage basin of 25,000 miles² (02R2).

The five Great Lakes of the US - Superior, Huron, Michigan, Erie and Ontario - contain over 5500 cubic miles (23,000 km³) of fresh water - 18% of the world's available fresh water supply (02R2).

The Ganges, Yellow River, Nile, and Colorado dry up before reaching the ocean, and water that would feed aquifers runs into the ocean without moisturizing forests and marshlands (02U3).

(Lakes) Half the world's lakes and reservoirs - representing 90% of all liquid fresh water on the Earth's surface - are degraded by pollution and drainage. Up to 1 billion people worldwide depend on endangered nearby lakes for drinking water, sewage, fishing, irrigation, transportation or tourism, said World Water Forum vice president William Cosgrove (01A1).

Much of today's agriculture in the developing world suffers from large water losses. This holds for both irrigated agriculture, where water use efficiency tends to be of the order of 30%, and for rain-fed agriculture where yields are often of the order of only 100 ton/ km³ or less. The losses tend to be largest in savanna zone agriculture where the majority of the poorest countries are located. There, rain-fed agriculture typically involves water use (consumption?) of the order of 3000 m³/ ton of grain (05F1).

Whereas homes and factories return a large portion of their water to the environment after they use it, half to 2/3 of agriculture's share is "consumed" through evaporation or transpiration and is thus not available for a second or third use (96P3). Comments: Irrigation water returned to the river is usually loaded with salt, making it less useful in downstream irrigation systems.

(Reservoir Evaporation) By 2025 water will be lost through evaporation from reservoirs at a rate of 300 km³/ year, vs.200 in 2000 (03U1).

(Waste) In 2000, global industry wasted 400 km³ of water (03U1).

(Waste) In 2000, global agriculture- and domestic use each wasted water at a rate of 800 km³/ year. (This is expected to become 1000-1100 by 2025) (03U1).

Agriculture use accounts for 85% of India's renewable water resources, and this just meets food sufficiency. Agricultural demand for water in India will rise 50% by 2025. (M. De Villiers, (1999). Water Wars: Is the world's water running out ? Weidenfeld and Niconslon, London. p. 292.) (06H2).

India's 21 million water wells are powered by heavily subsidized electricity, yet they are lowering water tables at an accelerating rate. In some Indian states, half of all electricity is used to pump water (Ref. 9 of (05B1)). (SU5)

In Tamil Nadu, an Indian state of 62 million people, falling water tables have dried up 95% of the water wells owned by small farmers, reducing the irrigated area in that state by over 50% during the past decade (Ref. 10 of (05B1)). (SU5)

India just completed the Sardar Sarovar Dam as an answer to the water needs of millions in western India. The Sardar Sarovar is the centerpiece of the multibillion- dollar Narmada Valley development project that taps the Narmada, India's fifth-largest river. The dam will connect an 86,000 kilometer (50,000 mile) network of canals and help irrigate 1.8 million hectares (4.5 million acres) of farm land and provide drinking water to 20 million people. It will help in flood control and generate 1450 MW of peak power. Construction of the dam (1250 meters (4100 ft) long, 122 meters (400 ft) high), began in 1987 ("India Completes Huge Dam, Critics Damn It," Planet Ark, 1/02/07.).

The Gangotri glacier, which provides up to 70% of the water in the Ganges River during the dry summer months, is shrinking at a rate of 40 yards/ year, nearly twice as fast as two decades ago. According to a UN climate report, the Himalayan glaciers that are the source of the Ganges could disappear by 2030 as temperatures rise. In India, the Ganges River provides more than 500 million people with water for drinking and farming. (Emily Wax, "A Sacred River Endangered by Global Warming," Washington Post, 6/17/07, p. A14.) (Su5)

(Groundwater) Bangladesh dug over a million wells in the 1970s, so today almost 90% of its people drink ground-water (00S1).

(River Shrinkage) Bangladesh's Inland Water Transport Authority says 80% of Bangladesh's 235 rivers are drying up (Pittsburgh Post Gazette, 2/17/02). (su5)

India's water scarcity is increasing; the number of Indian villages without any water source went from 750 in 1985 to 65,000 in 1996. (D. R. Ward, (2002), Water Wars: Drought, Flood, Folly and the Politics of Thirst. Riverhead Books, New York. p. 5.) (06H2). (su5)

India's urban water demand is expected to double, while industrial water demand is expected to triple, by 2025, as India continues to develop economically (Worldwatch Institute. (2006), State of the World, Special focus: China and India. W.W. Norton and Company, London. p. 14.) (06H2).

Only 10% of Indian sewage is treated, both industrial and urban pollution have turned many Indian rivers into open sewers and further decrease the amount of available usable water (Worldwatch Institute. (2006), State of the World, Special focus: China and India. W.W. Norton and Company, London. p. 7.) (06H2).

No city in India has 24-hour water service. The Indian government is unable to provide sufficient amounts of water to meet basic water demands in urban areas (L. Bhandari and A. Khare, (2006). "Poor provision of household water in India: respond to artificial scarcity." K. Okonski et al. (Eds.) The Water Revolution: Practical Solutions to Water Scarcity. International Policy Press, London. p. 96.) (06H2).

Annual precipitation and snowfall in India is about 4000 billion m³/ year. Natural runoff to rivers and recharge of ground water consumes 1869 billion m³/ year. Of the remainder, only about 690 billion m³/ year can be used because of topographical constraints and uneven distribution of rainfall (06M2). Together with groundwater resources, (about 432 km³) India's water availability is 1122 km³/ year. India's agriculture will require 1008 km³/ year by 2050 to produce the 539 million tons of food grain that will be needed then (when the population reaches 1.6 billion) (06M2). Comments: With the shrinkage of glaciers in the Himalayas, surface water supplies in India are shrinking. (See elsewhere in this document.)

In India's northwestern provinces of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, groundwater through tube wells for cultivation of wheat, rice and sugarcane have been over-exploited, resulting in severe depletion of groundwater (06M2). The Indian states of Punjab and Haryana, combined, produce 33% of India's wheat.

About 60% of India's farmland is exclusively rain-fed. 80% of India's rainfall occurs between June and September (the monsoons). This makes multiple cropping essentially impossible (06M2).

(Groundwater Depletion) In India, farmers have invested around US$12 billion in groundwater pump structures - resulting in unsustainable use in many parts of India (04M1).

(Groundwater Depletion) Farmers are driving Asian countries towards an environmental catastrophe, using tube wells that are sucking groundwater reserves dry, New Scientist says. Tens of millions of tube wells have been drilled over the past decade, many of them beyond any official control, and powerful electric pumps are being used to haul up the water at a rate that far outstrips replenishment by rainfall. In the case of India, smallholder farmers have driven 21 million tube wells into their fields and the number is increasing by a million wells per year. Half of India's traditional hand-dug wells have run dry, as have millions of shallower tube wells ("Asia faces water catastrophe: scientists", PARIS (AFP) 8/25/04).

(Groundwater Depletion) In India the leading country in total irrigated area and the third-largest grain producer, the number of shallow tubewells used to draw groundwater was 3000 in 1960, and 6 million in 1990 (00S1).

(Water Constraints on Irrigation) The eventual lack of water for irrigation could cut India's grain production by 25% (UNFPA data) (Times of India, 2/15/00).

Water-Deficit States in India in the Mid-1990s (km³/ year) (99P1)
State - - -|Deficit
Rajasthan~ | 32.6
Maharashtra| 22.0
Gujarat~ ~ | 16.0
Haryana~ ~ | 14.2
Karnataka~ | 12.7
Punjab ~ ~ | ~4.0
Other~ ~ ~ | ~2.8
Total~ ~ ~ |104.3

India's water resources use (km³/ year) (Refs. 46 and 61 of (81G1))
Surface Water|Potential|Use (1973-74)
Irrigation ~ | ~ ~ 510 |240
Other~ ~ ~ ~ | ~ ~ 190 | 10
Groundwater
Irrigation ~ | ~ ~ 260 |110
Other~ ~ ~ ~ | ~ ~ ~90 | 20

(Groundwater Depletion) Delhi, India, will run out of groundwater by 2015 at current rates. (Environment News Service, 3/22/01)

See http://iwmi.org.pk/iwmi/WP%2064%20final-With%20C%20&%20B%20Page.pdf for the results of a comprehensive groundwater survey of Pakistan, designed to understand the dynamics of groundwater use, operation and maintenance patterns, socio-economics of groundwater irrigation, land use pattern, crops, yields, and groundwater irrigation practices. 1/11/05.

Water tables are plunging in the Pakistani state of Punjab, which produces 90% of Pakistan's food." ("Asia faces water catastrophe: scientists", PARIS (AFP) 8/25/04)

(Salination of Surface Water and Groundwater) As a result of reduced flow in the Indus River, seawater is making intrusions into the land (surface?) and subsoil waters in coastal areas, particularly in the Thatta and Badin districts in the Indus delta, making them saline. Once-fertile agricultural lands were fast becoming barren. (speaker at a 2/8/02 conference "Population and Environment" organized by Pakistan's Sindh Population Welfare Department.)

Among the new refugees are people being forced to move because of aquifer depletion and wells running dry. Thus far the evacuations have been of villages, but eventually whole cities might have to be relocated, such as Quetta, the capital of Pakistan's Baluchistan province. Quetta (in Pakistan), originally designed for 50,000 people, now has 1 million inhabitants, all of whom depend on 2,000 wells pumping water deep from underground, depleting what is believed to be a fossil or non-replenishable aquifer. Quetta (in Pakistan) may have enough water for the rest of this decade (Lester R. Brown, "Troubling New Flows of Environmental Refugees", Earth Policy Institute, 1/28/04).

According to China's deputy minister of construction, more than 100 of China's biggest cities could soon face water crises. (Worldwatch Institute. (2006). State of the World, Special focus: China and India. W. W. Norton and Co., London. p. 14-15.) (06H2).

China has 8% of the world's freshwater resources, but has 22% of the global population. (Worldwatch Institute. (2006). State of the World, Special focus: China and India. W.W. Norton and Company, London. p. 7.) (06H2).

7% of China's glaciers are vanishing annually and by 2050, as many as 64% of China's glaciers will have disappeared. An estimated 300 million Chinese live in China's arid west and depend on water from glaciers for their survival ("Water for Near Half the World's Population Under Threat at the Roof of the World: Conservation of watersheds urgently needed to reduce increasing floods, human and biodiversity losses." GLOBIO (an initative of the UN Environment Program UNEP) 9/5/05. (based on a new report "The Fall of Waters" which is available at www.globio.info and www.grida.no and www.unep.org together with graphics and maps.) (su5)

In China's western province of Xinjiang, the Tarim River began to run dry in 1972 following construction of a reservoir in its middle. It has now almost totally disappeared (Jehangir S. Pocha, "China's dangerous dustbowl," The Boston Globe, 9/18/06.). (Su3).

China's per-capita water consumption rate is 25% the global average rate. (W. Xinbo, (2006). 'Water governance in China: The failure of a top-down approach.' K. Okonski et al. (Eds.) The Water Revolution: Practical Solutions to Water Scarcity. Int'l Policy Press, London. p. 149.) (06H2).

About 75% of Chinese lakes, and an even larger portion of water on China's costal areas, are polluted (05D1) (06H2).

On average, China has only 25% of the world's average water supply per person. China's water is geographically unevenly distributed, with the Northern China only having access to 20% of the South on a per-capita basis (05D1) (06H2).

In China 80% of the nation's water is in the south while two-thirds of China's agricultural production is in the north. (Brown and Halweil quoted in R. Dimitrov, (2002). 'Water, Conflict and Security: A Conceptual Minefield', Journal of Society and Natural Resources, 15: (2002) pp. 677-691, p. 686.) (06H2).

Farmers in the North China plain without access to ground water have already started to abandon wheat production because of surface water scarcity (Worldwatch Institute. (2006), State of the World, Special focus: China and India. W.W. Norton and Company, London. p. 14.) (06H2).

About 67% of the water needed for cities and agriculture in China comes from aquifers. (05D1) (06H2).

According to Wang Shucheng, the groundwater of Northern China will be exhausted in the next decade. (W. Shucheng, (2003) quoted in W. Xinbo, (2006). 'Water governace in China : The failure of a top-down approach.' K. Okonski et al. (Eds.) The Water Revolution: Practical Solutions to Water Scarcity. International Policy Press, London. p. 149.) (06H2). (su5)

China's second longest river, the Yellow River, has run dry 20 out 25 years between 1972 and 1997. The number of days that the Yellow River has run dry increased from 10 in 1988 to 230 days in 1997. (05D1) (06H2)

More than 80% of the wetlands along northern China's largest river system have dried up due to over-development or falling water tables. (J. Watts, (13/2/06). Water crisis: Wetlands sucked dry in China. The Guardian, International Section.) (06H2).

The Chinese government is responding to its water supply challenges with massive construction projects such as the Three Gorges Dam project and the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. The Three Gorges Dam is under construction and is the world's largest civil engineering project. China's South-to-North Water Diversion Project that began in 2002 and is estimated to be completed in 2050 at a cost of $59 billion (05D1) (06H2). Comments: The rate at which dam water storage capacity in China is depleted by erosion sediments is several percent per year, so the lifetime of the Three Gorges Dam will only be a matter of few decades.

In a March 2005 interview, the Chinese Vice-Minister of the Environment, Pan Yue said, "This (Chinese economic) miracle will end soon because the environment can no longer keep pace . . . China's society as a whole will become unstable". (Worldwatch Institute. (2006), State of the World, Special focus: China and India. W.W. Norton and Company, London. p.18-19) (06H2).

China's demand for irrigation water (km³/ year) (98B3)
Year - - - |1995 |2030
Agriculture| 400 | 665
Industrial | ~52 | 269
Residential| ~31 | 134
Total~ ~ ~ | 483 |1068

China's per-capita farmland area is 0.097 ha.. China supplies water to its 1.3 billion people - 20% of the world's population - with 8% of the world's freshwater ("China Marks 34th Earth Day with Focus on Resources Protection", Xinhua General News Service, 4/22/03).

China's per-capita water resources accounts for 25% of the world's average ("Look on Green GDP Objectively", China Economic Net, 6/30/04.).

In China's north plain, China's breadbasket, 30 km³ (1.059 trillion ft³) more water are being extracted each year by farmers than are being replaced by the rain, New Scientist said. Groundwater is used to produce 40% of China's grain. In June, the state paper China Daily admitted that China "may be plunged into a water crisis" by 2030 when China's population is scheduled to peak at 1.6 billion. The tube-well revolution, whose technology is adapted from the oil industry, has also swept water-stressed countries like Pakistan and Vietnam, where underground reserves are likewise being depleted, New Scientist says. "Vietnam has quadrupled its number of tube wells in the past decade to one million ("Asia faces water catastrophe: scientists", PARIS (AFP) Aug 25, 2004).

Wells drilled around Beijing China have now reached 1000 meters to tap fresh water (World Bank, "Agenda for Water Sector Strategy for North China (Washington DC, April 2001).

Sand and dust pour into China's Guanting Reservoir -one of two from which Beijing draws water - at a rate of 3 million tonnes/ year. Silt, fertilizer runoff and factory pollution rendered the water unfit for drinking in 1997 (Frank Langfitt, "Deserts slowly swallowing up China", Pittsburgh Post Gazette, 4/28/02).

"Two-thirds of China's cities are now short of water and the very existence of some, such as Taiyuan, the capital of Shanxi, is threatened. All but a handful of the 300 tributaries that feed into the Hai River are now dry, with dire consequences for a population of 120 million people in the Hai river basin. But agricultural runoff from chemical fertilizers, industrial effluent, and urban waste has rendered the water in most of its reservoirs undrinkable. Across the whole of the North China Plain, where half of China's wheat is grown, 3.6 million wells have been sunk, mostly for irrigation. The aquifer below is being steadily drained and the water table is 90 meters below the surface and dropping by 3-6 meters/ year. Most of the 20 billion tonnes of urban sewage that China's expanding cities produce each year is dumped straight into rivers and lakes. China now produces as much organic water pollution as the US, Japan and India combined (China: Collision between population and the environment, Asia Times, 8/23/03).

No water is available for irrigation on China's Loess Plateau (89Y2). Comments: Loess (windblown) soil has very low organic matter so it is very poor, erosion-prone soil.

China is planning to build six dams along its half of the 4,840-km. (3025-mile) Mekong river in order to power economic development in the southwest of China. Combined with two existing Chinese dams on the Mekong, they could generate a total of 15.6 gigawatts of electricity/ year, Xinhua news reported. The dams would ease flooding during annual rains and add water during the dry season. The four countries downstream, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam, would suffer reduced water flow and water quality levels. Joern Kristensen, chief executive of the Mekong River Commission secretariat in Phnom Penh, said "If the water's quality is altered, that could impact downstream fisheries which provide the single most important source of protein for millions of Cambodians." ("Nations Concerned About China's Planned Dams", CNN.com/Xinhua, 1/25/02).

(River Shrinkage) In Shanxi province of China, the Fen River, a Yellow River tributary that used to run through the capital, Taiyuan, barely exists (02U1).

(River Shrinkage) The Fen River in China is so overused that it failed to complete its course to the Yellow River in 1972 for the first time in recorded history (02U1).

(Groundwater Depletion) Aquifers beneath Taiuan China have dropped more than 300 feet. Today, about 48 million acres of arable land and 100 million people reside within the Fen River basin (02U1).

(Water Quality Issues) Discharge of toxins from cities and factories has made China's Yellow River water unfit for irrigation and human consumption along much of its route. "Only 15% of Yellow River water is treated, and only 20% is recycled," said Vaclav Smil, a professor of geography at the University of Manitoba in Canada and an expert on China's water problems (02U1).

(Pollution) According to the UN, 80% of China's major rivers are so polluted that they no longer support fish (02U1).

(River Dry-up) In 1972, the Yellow River ran dry before reaching the Yellow Sea for the first time in history. In 1997, the Yellow River's lower reaches were dry for 227 days (02U1).

(Per-capita Demand Growth) China's population is expected to increase by 300 million (about 25%) by 2030. China's demand for water is expected to increase by 66% by 2030 (Environment News Service, 3/22/01).

(Water Shortages) Over 65% of China's cities face severe water shortages (Environment News Service, 3/22/01).

(Dams) Diversion projects and dams have been Beijing's main response to China's growing water crisis. All along the Yellow River, diversion and dam projects, big and small, are in progress. There are plans for more than 10 new dams on the river. As a result, critics argue that too little has been done to tackle the roots of the crisis - deforestation of the inner provinces; indiscriminate, uneconomical use of water for agriculture; outdated factories that use more water than necessary; erosion, overpopulation, the lack of a functioning price system, and the lack of water treatment plants (02U1).

(Disappearing Lakes) In China between 1950-80, 543 large- and medium-sized lakes disappeared when their water was diverted for irrigation. Remarks were made at the International Conference on Conservation and Management of Lakes in Japan, in preparation for the Third World Water Forum to be held in the city of Kyoto, Japan in 2003 (01A1). (su5)